Agriculture

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2012 - Ukraine's Wheat Output to Reach 19.0mn Tonnes in 2012/13

  2012 MAY 10 - (VerticalNews.com) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/37mt29/ukraine_agribusine) has announced the addition of the "Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2012" report to their offering.

  This report highlight significant downside risks to its production forecasts for 2012/13 as grains plantings in Ukraine have been badly affected by droughts. The authors believe this could limit the country's export capacity but do not expect output to fall back to the 2010/11 low and still expect the country's agricultural sector to be driven by grains exports in 2012/13.

  Key Forecasts

  -Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 28.6% to 21.7mn tonnes. Production methods are improving rapidly and yield gains can be expected. Reforms to land ownership laws, including allowing foreign investors to buy land, could raise productivity towards the end of the forecast period.

  -Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 23.8% to 1.0mn tonnes. This will come from increased substitution for more expensive pork and beef.

  -Milk production growth to 2015/16: -2.5% to 10.8mn tonnes. Consolidation and increased investment should start to compensate for industry exits, with production expected to start rising again from 2013/14.

  -2012 real GDP growth: 2.4% average, down from 4.8% in 2011. Predicted to average 4.2% from 2011 to 2016.

  -2012 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average, up from 9.1% 2011.

  This report maintains belief that Ukraine's wheat production will be weaker in 2012/13 as winter droughts have left part of the winter wheat crop in poor condition and delayed sprouting. In fact, the country's agriculture ministry indicated that 54.5% of the area planted with grains was in satisfactory condition, with the rest judged to be of poor quality. This could result in the winter wheat harvest declining 46% to between 12mn and 16mn tonnes. The authors maintain their forecast for Ukraine's wheat output to reach 19.0mn tonnes in 2012/13, compared to 20.4mn tonnes in 2011/12, but they see significant downside risk to their forecast.

  For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/37mt29/ukraine_agribusine.

  Keywords: Research and Markets.

  This article was prepared by VerticalNews Agriculture editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 2012, VerticalNews Agriculture via VerticalNews.com.